According to the information note drawn up for the 2022 Cameroon government bond issue FCFA 200 billion, the country expects to produce 25.3 million barrels of oil and 69.9 billion Scf (standard cubic fedd) of natural gas in the current year.
This should generate total revenues estimated at CFAF 562 billion, up by CFAF 85 billion (17.8%) compared to 2021. But, we learn from the same document, the year 2022 should be the last to be marked by the seal of approval in terms of oil revenues, before the year 2025. Indeed, the Cameroonian government projects that “in the medium term, these revenues will be established at CFAF 523 billion in 2023 and CFAF 509 billion in 2024 in relation to the drop in production announced by SNH (Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures). The document is not more explicit about this announced drop.
These projections should nevertheless be put into perspective. They are based on a barrel price of 64.50 dollars with a discount of 3.5 dollars and an exchange rate of 575.5 FCFA per dollar. These assumptions are far from the current trend. Today, a barrel of oil is sold at more than 110 dollars (+65% year-on-year) and a dollar was worth more than 621 FCFA yesterday (+15.7% year-on-year). And according to the World Bank’s projections at the end of April, oil prices should remain at around 100 dollars at least until 2023, notably because of the war in Ukraine.
In addition, according to the explanations provided by the government, “oil revenues include the SNH royalty and the tax on oil companies, to which are added, since 2020, the revenues from the export of natural gas”. Indeed, since March 2018, Cameroon has become a producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), thanks to the commissioning of the Hilli Episseyo, a floating unit installed off the coast of Kribi, the seaside city in the southern region.
Since then, the country’s gas production has continued to increase. A new increase in production capacity is also announced for 2022. Indeed, according to Golar, the company that operates the floating vessel of Kribi, in partnership with SNH, the production of LNG should increase from 1.2 million tons per year to 1.4 million tons from 2022. The additional supply should be provided by the Sanaga Sud field, it is learnt.
In addition, the government is counting on a price of 6.30 dollars per cubic metre of gas, while the price of gas is also rising (+180% year-on-year).